What happened?
On 1 June, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee. The meeting resulted in a major policy shift, marking an end to the two-child policy and raising the limit to three children per couple. 

On 2 June, Xinhua, the official state-run media agency, conducted an online survey asking "#AreYouReady?" to which more than 90 per cent of the respondents replied they were "not ready to consider" having three children. 

What is the background?
First, the latest census report. On 11 May, The National Bureau of Statistics in China released the Seventh National Population Census. It confirmed with numbers what many experts had been warning for years. In 2020, China recorded the least population growth in more than six decades; and the lowest number of births since 1961. The fertility rate dropped to 1.3 children per woman, which is lower than the required 2.1 replacement rate. Low retirement ages have reduced the working population of China, and with the increased percentage of the elderly population, China is now a greying society. The census brought out the complications of an ageing population and a shrinking labour force. 

Second, the impact of the earlier one-child policy. The one-child policy of 1979 has left deep marks on the Chinese demography. Stringent laws,  sterilization, and abortions have led to highly coerced family planning. The one-child policy created a generation of overburdened individuals who have to support elderly parents, spend on education and child care for their offspring(s), and pay instalments of their costly housing mortgage debts. The two-child policy of 2016 did not improve the declining birth rate. In the few families with two children, parents are forced to leave one of their children in villages with their old grandparents due to the high cost of living in cities and harsh working hours. It is now a norm to have only one child. 

Third, the socio-economic factors. When China witnessed its highest growth rate, it was an agrarian economy with low life expectancy and high infant mortality rate. The highest population growth was recorded between 1949 and 1957 when China was recovering from World War II and excessive poverty. More children in a family meant more hands to work in the field/factories. Over time, the medical facilities have improved which helps people to live longer and children to stay healthier. The average age when women get married has shifted from less than 20 during the 1950s to around 29 in 2020. An older average age of getting married means fewer children. A typical citizen is now more aware of their capabilities to raise. Parents now choose to provide a good life to one child rather than an average one to two children.

Fourth, the response to the policy. The three-child policy is facing severe apprehension from young couples who do not wish to expand their family; they demand supporting mechanisms to lighten their burdens and uplift their living standards. Families that earlier paid fines for having two/three children are now agitated over the timing of this new policy. Amnesty International calls it a violation of sexual and reproductive rights, saying: "Governments have no business regulating how many children people have". Many experts have shown their distrust in the policy, calling it 'hollow'. 

What does it mean?
This decision is two decades too late. The desired growth rate of the population seems a distant reality. But the policy may lead to a rural-urban divide in terms of birth rate, employment pressures, and poverty. The failure of the two-child policy makes the success of this new policy suspicious. However, the immediate question is, how far will the state go to make the policy appealing to young couples?